Make America Great Again Nuclear Pepe
Vast swathes of the West seem non to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.
By Pepe Escobar
Special to Consortium News
T he Trump administration once again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21stcentury, "international police force" and "national sovereignty" already vest to the Realm of the Walking Dead.
Equally if a deluge of sanctions against a great bargain of the planet was non enough, the latest "offer yous tin can't refuse" conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo, now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only czar of globe trade: Washington.
First the Trump administration unilaterally smashed a multinational, United nations-endorsed understanding, the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal. At present the waivers that magnanimously immune viii nations to import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions will expire on May 2 and won't be renewed.
President Trump'due south decision to withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the rubber and security of the American people.
Why Iran sanctions are necessary: https://t.co/YQtmSA9hZX flick.twitter.com/n5r8mhZTl5
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) August 6, 2018
The eight nations are a mix of Eurasian powers: Cathay, India, Nihon, South korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italia and Greece.
Apart from the trademark toxic cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geo–economical infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy conclusion, the notion that Washington can decide who's allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China does non even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that imposing a full embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.
Ultimate Neocon Wet Dream
Those subscribing to the ultimate U.Southward, neocon and Zionist moisture dream – authorities change in Iran – may rejoice at this declaration of war. But as Professor Mohammad Marandi of the Academy of Tehran has elegantly argued, "If the Trump regime miscalculates, the house can easily come crashing down on its head."
Reflecting the fact Tehran seems to have no illusions regarding the utter folly ahead, the Iranian leadership— if provoked to a betoken of no return, Marandi additionally told me— can become as far equally "destroying everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf and chasing the U.S.out of Iraq and Afghanistan. When the U.S.escalates, Iran escalates. Now it depends on the U.Southward.how far things get."
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This red alert from a sensible academic perfectly dovetails with what's happening with the structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — recently branded a "terrorist organization" by the United States. In perfect symmetry, Iran's Supreme National Security Council also branded the U.S. Fundamental Control— CENTCOM — and "all the forces continued to it" equally a terrorist group.
The new IRGC commander-in-chief is Brigadier General Hossein Salami, 58. Since 2009 he was the deputy of previous commander Mohamamd al-Jafari, a soft spoken but tough as nails admirer I met in Tehran ii years ago. Salami, equally well equally Jafari, is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war; that is, he has actual combat experience. And Tehran sources clinch me that he can be fifty-fifty tougher than Jafari.
In tandem, IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has evoked the unthinkable in terms of what might develop out of the U.S.total embargo on Iran oil exports; Tehran could block the Strait of Hormuz.
Western Oblivion
Vast swathes of the ruling classes across the W seem to be oblivious to the reality that if Hormuz is shut down, the result volition be an admittedly cataclysmic global economical depression.
Warren Buffett, among other investors, has routinely qualified the 2.5 quadrillion derivatives market every bit a weapon of financial mass destruction. As it stands, these derivatives are used — illegally — to drain no less than a trillion U.S. dollars a year out of the market in manipulated profits.
Considering historical precedents, Washington may eventually be able to set upward a Persian Gulf of Tonkin false flag. Only what adjacent?
If Tehran were totally cornered past Washington, with no manner out, the de facto nuclear option of shutting downwards the Strait of Hormuz would instantly cut off 25 pct of the global oil supply. Oil prices could rise to over $500 a barrel,to even $1000 a barrel. The 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives would showtime a concatenation reaction of destruction.
Unlike the shortage of credit during the 2008 fiscal crisis, the shortage of oil could not exist made up past fiat instruments. Simply because the oil is not in that location. Not even Russia would exist able to re-stabilize the market.
It'southward an open underground in private conversations at the Harvard Social club – or at Pentagon war-games for that matter – that in case of a state of war on Islamic republic of iran, the U.S.Navy would not be able to go on the Strait of Hormuz open up.
Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles—with a elevation speed of Mach two.9 — are lining up the Iranian northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. In that location's no way U.Southward.aircraft carriers can defend a barrage of Yakhont missiles.
Then there are the SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles—already exported to Cathay and Bharat—flying ultra-low at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity, and extremely mobile; they can be fired from a flatbed truck, and were designed to defeat the U.S.Aegis radar defense system.
What Will People's republic of china Practise?
The full–frontal attack on Iran reveals how the Trump assistants bets on breaking Eurasia integration via what would exist its weakeast node; the iii key nodes are China, Russia and Iran. These three actors interconnect the whole spectrum; Chugalug and Route Initiative; the Eurasia Economical Union; the Shanghai Cooperation Arrangement; the International North-South Transportation Corridor; the expansion of BRICS Plus.
Then there's no question the Russia-Mainland china strategic partnership will be watching Islamic republic of iran's back. Information technology'south no accident that the trio is among the tiptop existential "threats" to the U.Southward., co-ordinate to the Pentagon. Beijing knows how the U.South.Navy is able to cutting it off from its energy sources. And that'due south why Beijing is strategically increasing imports of oil and natural gas from Russia; technology the "escape from Malacca" besides must take into account a hypothetical U.S.takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.
Dark view of coast of Oman, including Strait of Hormuz. (Intl Space Station photograph via Wikimedia)
A plausible scenario involves Moscow acting to defuse the extremely volatile U.S.-Islamic republic of iran confrontation, with the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense trying to persuade President Donald Trump and the Pentagon from any direct set on against the IRGC. The inevitable counterpart is the rise of covert ops, the possible staging of simulated flags and all manner of shady Hybrid War techniques deployed not only against the IRGC, directly and indirectly, but confronting Iranian interests everywhere. For all applied purposes, the U.Southward.and Iran are at state of war.
Within the framework of the larger Eurasia break-up scenario, the Trump administration does profit from Wahhabi and Zionist psychopathic hatred of Shi'ites. The "maximum pressure" on Iran counts on Jared of Arabia Kushner's close WhatsApp pal Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh and MbS's mentor in Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed, to replace the shortfall of Iranian oil in the market. Bu that'southward nonsense —as quite a few wily Farsi Gulf traders are adamant Riyadh won't "absorb Iran'due south marketplace share" because the extra oil is not there.
Much of what lies ahead in the oil embargo saga depends on the reaction of assorted vassals and semi-vassals. Japan won't take the guts to go against Washington. Turkey will put upward a fight. Italy, via Salvini, volition lobby for a waiver. India is very complicated; New Delhi is investing in Islamic republic of iran'south Chabahar port every bit the fundamental hub of its own Silk Road, and closely cooperates with Tehran within the INSTC framework. Would a shameful betrayal be in the cards?
China, it goes without saying, volition simply ignore Washington.
Iran will find ways to get the oil flowing because the demand won't just vanish with a magic wave of an American hand. It'southward time for creative solutions. Why not, for instance, refuel ships in international waters, accepting aureate, all sorts of cash, debit cards, bank transfers in rubles, yuan, rupees and rials —and everything bookable on a website?
At present that's a way Iran can use its tanker fleet to make a killing. Some of the tankers could exist parked in —you got information technology —the Strait of Hormuz, with an eye on the cost at Jebel Ali in the UAE to make sure this is the real deal. Add to it a duty complimentary for the ships crews. What's non to like? Ship owners will save fortunes on fuel bills, and crews will get all sorts of stuff at 90 percent discount in the duty free.
And let'southward see whether the EU has grown a spine— and really turbo-accuse their Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) alternative payment network conceived after the Trump administration ditched the JCPOA. Considering more than breaking upward Eurasia integration and implementing neocon regime alter, this is near the ultimate anathema; Iran is being mercilessly punished because it has bypassed the U.S.dollar on energy trade.
Pepe Escobar, a veteran Brazilian journalist, is the correspondent-at-large for Hong Kong-based Asia Times. His latest book is "2030." Follow him on Facebook .
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Source: https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/24/pepe-escobar-war-on-iran-calling-americas-bluff/?print=pdf
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